We look very good in the picture!
The G-20 met soon after the meeting of the G-8 and shows that industrialized countries are divided: the European Union countries making deep cuts in their budgets to reduce its current account deficit, the United States making adjustments, but wanting to promote growth; Japan following the flow as always, and the BRIC countries, except Russia, growing in China’s rhythm.
Speaking of China, it seems that they initiated the first move, very tenuous, in eastern patience steps the flexibility of the Yuan. Also, Brazil is positioning itself against the timidity shown by some developed countries that prefer to keep a cyclical low, complaining that Doha and other incentives to improve the world situation are not progressing.
Our macroeconomic indicators are very good; the three presidential candidates have expressed commitment not to tamper with good macroeconomic fundamentals, providing calm to the markets regarding the continuity of the principles of sound macroeconomic management. Consequently ... we look very well in this picture!
Furthermore, we have BNDES’ projects in the area of infrastructure and energy for the next three years, amounting over R$500 billion, not to mention the investments reported by the industries of mineral commodities and food products whose world demand will ensure prices and volumes for the coming years.
We will have above average growth from recent years, Brazilians income increasing, more jobs and resources for investments in social and environmental. What do we want more ...? Doesn’t this scenario look great?
Well, not everything in this growth brings peace for Brazil’s future. The quality of that growth will need to be explained and evaluated by us all, therefore, if it continues like this, in 10 to 20 years we will be a country with better infrastructure and better income, but in the end we will have strengthened our position as major global provider of ore, food and its processing, and energy.
It is interesting to note that in our first semester growth we will have a GDP similar to China, whereas the industrial rate of growth is above 12%, agriculture, 5%, and services, also at 5%. The domestic industrial growth showed that most of the products sold caused a rapid increase of imports, meaning that our domestic consumption induces the aggregation of value on imported products. On the other hand, we do not find the same growth on the export of manufactured products, since the market there is contracted out, prices are highly competitive, consequently lower, and the exchange rate of the euro and the dollar is depreciating.
This is a scenario in which our industrial products are becoming less competitive. And our currency Real, with a tendency to evaluate, worsening the situation.
Amazingly, only one branch of industry has a trade surplus of manufactured goods, which is the aviation. Only Embraer exports surpass imports for airlines, equipment from Boeing and Airbus, and the remaining areas have a growing deficit, as is the case of machinery and equipment, automobiles, auto parts, chemicals, and so on.
This trend will increase, and consequently, we will have a growing deindustrialization in Brazil, subtly but firmly, without noticing the fact, because after all we look good in the photo, isn’t it?
Some might argue, but the domestic market will continue expanding and absorbing manufactured goods. The logic is correct, but the technological content will be more often from imported products and components, turning the Brazilian industry, although at an increasing pace, to become less competitive and relevant in the Brazilian GDP.
So the question remains: is the highest growth the fact that enables us to reverse this trend? We have a ceiling of growth that makes us unsustainable? Sustainable growth will happen if we enlarge the range of productive capacities within the perspective of growth without inflation and debt, making the social insertion and considering the respect for the environment.
This is necessary but not enough. Our nation, apart from being a food and supplies provider worldwide, ought to be a country that develops its industrial capacity and services in worldwide level.
To realize this, we must change our posture. The Brazil we want and could have has the capacity to become a major player also in the industrial field, because the quality that will bring for all Brazilians is distinct from the other. In fact, deindustrialization has been installed in Brazil for some time and subtly moves on us, without being able to realize this.
This is a major issue for future Brazilian leaders, who will be leading us in 2011 and then from 2015 onwards. The country’s industrialization deserves great attention of our leaders who should have an obsession on this subject, in such way that mobilizes Brazilian society at all levels to regain this space.
What should we do?
We need to recreate a culture of quality. Brazil needs to create an obsession with quality in every field, from private to public administration, through education, social services, even from the first to the last attendant of any product and service from our society to the final customer.
We need to create a culture focused on innovation. We Brazilians are a highly creative people; we can develop new, revolutionary solutions. We should channelize this creative capacity and facilitate the process of deployment and use of this creativity is a part of our learning, learning to continually do better.
We need to create a culture of planning. The commitment to time and organization of activities should be commitments to honor. Starting from punctuality to the final delivery we had promised, only a process of collective effort of national awareness.
We need to reward the best in the category (Best in Class). It is this person who should be high up the podium as an example, develop Olympics culture, in which the best receive the awards.
Industrialization with these vectors wins spaces of attention. It is clear that structural measures in the field of public policies are needed, such as taxes, programs for the production chains, and new systems of work, remuneration and transparency, management and unblemished management.
If only in the coming years we are not obsessed with these principles, we will hardly be bringing greater happiness to us all ... And well make a wonderful first half of the game, leaving the victory to others in the second half ...
Brazil deserves more! …